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BlueSky News Article: DECISIONS

hen you have to make a decision it means you are faced with a choice. Go one way or the other. That is the good thing about decisions. It doesn’t matter what you have to decide upon, whether it be about the purchase of a new aircraft or used; to stay with your current job or take a new opportunity; decide what to do in your relationship; there is a choice to be made.

Many of us looked forward to EBACE 2014 with either expectation or hope. As industry members we probably made personal judgements before the event that perhaps our expectations to do good business might be low but our hopes were high. Again choices were made.

And then the show turned out to be a success despite our expectations. Once the first day began it was clear that business was strong, relationships were fruitful, and conversations were to the point. Many things were achieved without wasting time and the event became a fast and productive way of doing business and helping to move our market along.

As I write, in economic terms the CEE is still in a period of financial uncertainty. Similar to EBACE, there is expectation and hope but no one feels confident to predict an exact outcome in terms of growth nor when that will be. But if we take the example given to us at EBACE perhaps we can be confident of gains in market momentum. After EBACE many are now supporting a positive approach to the aviation business and this in itself will help maintain progress, allied to steady encouraging financial and economic results spreading through the EU.

Harnessing this momentum within the aviation sector and pushing it further onwards will be one of the main aims of this year’s CEPA EXPO which is being held in the traditional Spanish Hall at Prague Castle on 19th and 20th November. CEPA Chairman, Roger Whyte has been working amongst the key people in the industry to ensure this event is more productive than ever. It remains the ideal opportunity following EBACE for our sector to share its expertise and exchange news and ideas to move towards the market that Europe needs so badly.

Cultural understanding is growing globally and this is coinciding with global economic momentum increasing within the CEE. So the best way to move forward is to make the optimum out of every opportunity – and to deal with decisions that give you choices.

When you are faced with difficult decisions about finding the right commercial deal, aircraft purchase or direction for your business strategy, you might consider the example provided by the Astronomer Johannes Kepler, when he first encountered difficult decisions when trying to solve the problem of finding the perfect wife. His search took in 11 candidates, all of which failed to bring about a successful union. In modern parlance Kepler needed an optimal strategy that whilst perhaps not guaranteeing success, would maximise his likelihood of satisfaction. Mathematicians believe this can be achieved using a formula whose rules are simple: start with a situation where you have a fixed number of options requiring a decision and apply the formula ‘e’, which expressed as a fraction 1/e equals 36.8%. Effectively this formula suggests the first 36.8% of choices can be discarded, but the next opportunity should be the right one. For Kepler this meant that his first 4 choices were no good, and the 5th was the one he should have chosen. Strange then that he eventually returned to his 5th option and their marriage was a very happy one.

So in looking forward the 2014 CEPA EXPO lets be positive about the decisions facing us and the exciting choices that we have to help us make them.


Article by Dagmar Grossmann


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