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CEPA EXPO 2014

DAY 1

The Prague Castle is ready for the show…

ready-for-the-show

 

 

CEPA Chairman, Roger Whyte, during his opening speech

Roger Whyte

 

 

Gregory Walters of Honeywell: “CEE has all the attributes for manufacturers growth.”

Gregory Walters

 

 

Deputy minister of Transport, Mr. Kamil Rudolecky, opened the 1st day of expo . In his speech he touched the Ukraine crisis topic and emphasized that the situation could be overcome by dialogue.

Kamil Rudolecky

 

 

Jiri Pos of Czech Aeroholding appealed bizav companies to address him with business offers to await of Prague airport growth.

Jiri Pos

 

 

“More than adherence to the rules, important is why we have the rules.” NBAA´s Doug Carr about Safety Culture at CEPA EXPO 2014.

Doug Carr

 

 

The spectacular Changing of the Guards Ceremony.

Guards Ceremony

 

 

Fabio Gamba of EBAA gave great insight into the challenges and opportunities of promoting bizav to a new European Parliament.

Fabio Gamba

 

 

What is the role of IBAC?: “Raising awareness of bizav and its benefits around the world”. Kurt Edwards and Peter Ingleton at CEPA EXPO 2014.

Kurt Edwards

Peter Ingleton

 

 

Philippe Renz of Meyer Avocates taking an interactive approach at the end of the first day.

Philippe Renz

 

 

CEPA EXPO Dinner at the Zofin Palace Garden restaurant.

Dinner

 

 

DAY 2

Petr Vavra of Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs opened the show on the second day. The department is very supportive of bizav and all the companies present.

Petr Vavra

 

 

Patrick Moulay of Bell Helicopter talked about how important CEE is for helicopter market and interesting changes in customer demands.

Patrick Moulay

 

 

Packed conference room at the start of the 2nd day.

2nd day

 

 

Operating Cost Control, Fleet Upgrading and Charters: panel was discussing how to manage and reduce costs and aircraft availability to meet demand. Speakers: Phil Brockwell (Centreline Air Charter), Christina Reiss (A/SQUARE), Bernhard Fragner (Globe Air), Dan Bull (AV Fuel), Doru Matei (Aviation Consult Jetexpert), Thomas Kleinbauer (JSSI).

Operating Cost Control panel

 

 

Break time…

Break time

 

 

CEPA Founder Dagmar Grossmann as we approached the end of the 2nd day.

 

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Thanks to all for attending CEPA EXPO 2014. We hope you enjoyed the show and look forward to seeing you at CEPA EXPO 2015!

 

www.cepaexpo.com
www.linkedin.com/CEPAEXPO
www.facebook.com/CEPAassociation
www.twitter.com/CEPAexpo 
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BlueSky News Article: DECISIONS

hen you have to make a decision it means you are faced with a choice. Go one way or the other. That is the good thing about decisions. It doesn’t matter what you have to decide upon, whether it be about the purchase of a new aircraft or used; to stay with your current job or take a new opportunity; decide what to do in your relationship; there is a choice to be made.

Many of us looked forward to EBACE 2014 with either expectation or hope. As industry members we probably made personal judgements before the event that perhaps our expectations to do good business might be low but our hopes were high. Again choices were made.

And then the show turned out to be a success despite our expectations. Once the first day began it was clear that business was strong, relationships were fruitful, and conversations were to the point. Many things were achieved without wasting time and the event became a fast and productive way of doing business and helping to move our market along.

As I write, in economic terms the CEE is still in a period of financial uncertainty. Similar to EBACE, there is expectation and hope but no one feels confident to predict an exact outcome in terms of growth nor when that will be. But if we take the example given to us at EBACE perhaps we can be confident of gains in market momentum. After EBACE many are now supporting a positive approach to the aviation business and this in itself will help maintain progress, allied to steady encouraging financial and economic results spreading through the EU.

Harnessing this momentum within the aviation sector and pushing it further onwards will be one of the main aims of this year’s CEPA EXPO which is being held in the traditional Spanish Hall at Prague Castle on 19th and 20th November. CEPA Chairman, Roger Whyte has been working amongst the key people in the industry to ensure this event is more productive than ever. It remains the ideal opportunity following EBACE for our sector to share its expertise and exchange news and ideas to move towards the market that Europe needs so badly.

Cultural understanding is growing globally and this is coinciding with global economic momentum increasing within the CEE. So the best way to move forward is to make the optimum out of every opportunity – and to deal with decisions that give you choices.

When you are faced with difficult decisions about finding the right commercial deal, aircraft purchase or direction for your business strategy, you might consider the example provided by the Astronomer Johannes Kepler, when he first encountered difficult decisions when trying to solve the problem of finding the perfect wife. His search took in 11 candidates, all of which failed to bring about a successful union. In modern parlance Kepler needed an optimal strategy that whilst perhaps not guaranteeing success, would maximise his likelihood of satisfaction. Mathematicians believe this can be achieved using a formula whose rules are simple: start with a situation where you have a fixed number of options requiring a decision and apply the formula ‘e’, which expressed as a fraction 1/e equals 36.8%. Effectively this formula suggests the first 36.8% of choices can be discarded, but the next opportunity should be the right one. For Kepler this meant that his first 4 choices were no good, and the 5th was the one he should have chosen. Strange then that he eventually returned to his 5th option and their marriage was a very happy one.

So in looking forward the 2014 CEPA EXPO lets be positive about the decisions facing us and the exciting choices that we have to help us make them.

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Article by Dagmar Grossmann

 

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Blue Sky News Article: When the solution is the problem

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The old, but nevertheless good question is how do we understand and calculate how any market will develop during the course of this year?

We can assume how it will be, we can ask a psychic to tell us or we can simply get confused by all the different opinions. Using the BASS Formula to gauge market performance is another option, however, what we really want to know is something for which no one really has the answer.

The question is especially difficult to answer in all of the new emerging markets with their incredible micro and macroeconomic factors which are volatile and each and every one of those factors a problem in themselves. So the solution is to wait and see, and in the meantime to adjust to the given conditions.

Eastern Europe has everything; promising markets and some terrible political turmoil. The countries and their political and sociological history are young so there are no comparable events and available data to really predict the future – not even the near future. The gap between rich and poor, geographically north and south and east and west within the various countries varies incredibly and while the internal speed of growth is swift, the pressure from outside increases.

So what can we do?

I still believe that CEE and all CEPA countries are the future markets in Europe. It is important to look more closely at the situation and translate it as much as possible to the economic language of the west.

For example, data has shown that Ukraine has an incredible number of potential UHNWI in the country, with 500 people falling into this category. For sure this number is real, but now, after the political trouble has escalated, it has become an area with as many problems as it has opportunities. Accounts are being frozen outside the Ukraine, financing banks are speechless and some OEMs are learning that it is crucial to understand the cultural language here more than anywhere else in the world.

Even though we are used to a 7-year cycle in business aviation, we try each and every year to answer the question of how to predict the future.

Light travels in waves, as does sound, and of course water. Any vibration across a solid surface is also considered a wave. And waves creates cycles. Herein lies the interesting question; how in a moving environment we can predict a fixed target?

How can we at least get closer to the real numbers that the market will show us at the end of the year? One solution is the BASS Formula (for those who are precise).

 

And it actually says this:

 

Forecasting is the most important thing in leading a company and predicting a market. Many different factors are involved, thousands of books have been written and it is still not really deciphered. But the three main factors are Cycles – Trends – Patterns. Analysing those three gives you for sure a clearer picture of where you stand at any time.

In addition, one of the other tools is:

Forecasting Triggers

When you are forecasting, you must avoid being so myopically or linearly focused on products or aspects of your industry so you do not notice other factors they could impact the industry’s future.

People have use the ‘Hype Cycle’ in the past to become educated about the promise of an emerging technology within the context of their industry and individual appetite for risk.

Should you make an early move or follow the crowd, seeing what your competitive operator does or going alone when entering new markets? If you’re willing to combine risk taking with an understanding that risky investments don’t always pay off, you could reap the rewards of early adoption.

Is a moderate approach appropriate? Executives who are more moderate understand the argument for an early move but will also insist on a sound cost/benefit analysis when new ways of doing things are not yet fully proven. Should you wait for further maturation?

If there are too many unanswered questions around the commercial viability of an emerging market, it may be better to wait until others have been able to deliver tangible value.

Artice by Dagmar Grossmann

 

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CEPA Daily News

CEPA Daily News

 

 

 

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Last month at EBACE.

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Status Quo East.

Business aviation companies use the word ‘international’ to describe the clients they serve, the scope of their operation and the standards they espouse. Until recently, globally-minded companies followed a trend that nowadays – apart from large corporations – only a few small and mid-sized businesses seem to adopt: Outsourcing.

 

In an industry where personnel are accustomed to constant relocation, outsourcing is becoming a reality for aviation companies based in Europe and they should look East to find reliable partners.

 

At the Europe-Ukraine Forum that took place in May in Budapest, government officials from Central European nations (especially Ukraine) carried a clear message. Emphasizing their focus on human rights, media freedom, recent laws to optimize customs clearance and the centralization of the Large Taxpayers Office, they are making an effort to increase transparency and build trust concerning the opportunities they offer foreign investors. Ukraine, home of the Antonov 225, the largest Airplane in the world, clearly has the capacity to handle large projects competitively. According to International Monetary Fund estimates, Ukrainian annual income per capita in 2012 amounted to $2,991 (23,931 hryvnyas ). This is an amount equal to what an average hangar staff-worker earns in a month in Switzerland.


2013-IMF-Ukraine

Does looking East begin to make sense?

Everyone seemed to be having a good time this year at EBACE, despite empty areas occupied in previous years by prosperous aviation More…

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Where do we go from here… Mckinsey?

This is a column that I regularly write for the business aviation magazine Blue Sky News called “View from the East”

We finally reached the 2013 and after surviving an apocalypse, suffering a bankruptcy in the industry and seeing the first celebrities book their seats for the Virgin Galactic adventure, we have to wonder: Where are we standing? On the fear preceded by a messy past or on the expectation for a brighter future. Well here’s a thought: How about the present?

During the last CEPA Expo one of the most notorious speakers, Magnus Henriksson from Avinode, made a remarkable opinion about the Central and Eastern European Business Aviation region, slightly unoptimistic but fairly remarked: The CEE is a region of untapped growth.

 

The untapped growth in existing markets.

 

The Central European countries represent an opportunity in the present, uncovering hidden opportunities for growth is what CEPA does and is reflected on the constantly growing membership.

 

But focusing on the people that make the numbers happen, Dagmar Grossmann conducted a research targeting the Ultra High Net-Worth Individuals in the Central European region. So we profiled the individuals who fulfilled the next requirements: A) Experienced in global business, B) Interested in travelling and aviation, C) international contacts and D) Backed up by a corporation

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Most of the people had charter experience; some of them even have an aircraft, but they haven’t make a deal on a second aircraft

More…

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Interviewed by Charles Alcock for Business Jet Traveller

Interviewed for Business Jet Traveler magazine.

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The curse of being first

If we looked back in history, we would see that all new ventures had either encountered strong resistance or got their honours at a later stage – when many people followed after the hard years were over.

This is what the rules in life tell you – to follow when everyone follows and not to overexpose yourself to a venture that seems good, but is ahead of its time. If everyone thought the same it would mean we stand alone with our belief that here is the chance to create a market within our nation (EU); new, wealthy and keen to team up with the rest of the world in setting the tone for the business – and maybe even taking over parts of those areas within the EU which completely failed to show results in Business Aviation. More…

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CEPA takes off,….